This cycle is ending

Nothing can change that now

I believe that human societies roughly follow 50 year cycles. That they move from open to closed from liberal to conservative and back again as demographic generations move through the aging process. The social settlement reflects this process - it is born, comes of age and then finally fails as elites take it to the extreme rather than reforming it and then begin to extract value via corruption.

It works somewhat like this:

1. A socio-political settlement exists which is broadly supported by the generation in power

2. A new generation comes along and wants to change the existing settlement - they push back but can only manage small changes because they are not in positions of power

3. The older generation ages out and is replaced by the new one who fully implement their idealised settlement - this is the moment of maximum change and when the new system works the best

4. The new generation matures and the settlement becomes ever more extreme, dysfunctional and corrupt enriching the few

5. Younger generations grow up who have no memory of anything else and many older people who have lost out can see only the flaws in the current system and want a new settlement implemented

6. The cycle begins again

I believe we are in step 5 for liberalism which kicked in socially in the 60’s and economically in the 70’s and has progressed like a speeding train through the last 5 decades reshaping everything globally. This kick back is most evident in the West which was ground zero for the ideology’s spread around the planet as it was adopted as the norm by our elites across Europe and the Anglophone countries.

The events of the last 10 years can be seen as the blow off top of step 4 as liberal elites decided to push liberalism even more to the extremes in response to mounting public angst about its outcomes. They have thrust forward ever more ridiculous ideas like trans whilst weaponising the state and our broader institutions to try and suppress any calls for change. This is hardly new when you consider what happened in the 60’s and 70’s in response to demands for change then.

Plus ca change.

What is different this time is the global nature of the system and push back. Liberalism went global due to advances in communication like the telephone, television and later the internet. This allowed for the internationalisation of trade, culture and politics and the formation of institutions to facilitate it. These have helped to sync countries politically and economically which is why you are seeing the emergence of anti liberalism majorities everywhere at once.

The problems can be seen everywhere because most countries adopted similar policies at similar times due to the nature of the system. Thus the demand to change course is being seen everywhere. At the same time you are seeing a direct and indirect managed counter offensive by the very people who have done so well out of the existing system. This is less smoke filled room conspiracies and more the fact that these people have become class aware over certainly the last 10 years and don’t want their privileges taken away.

Again plus ca change.

But there is a further complexity to this cycle which has never been seen before and that is the impact of mass migration. You see the above process only works when applied to relatively settled populations with cross generational knowledge and experience of the current and historical socio-political paradigms. Once you get to the point where 25% of the population are migrants then the process may well start to break down though this is less likely if the arrivals have come from countries which are synced in the same way i.e. the developed western world.

This is likely to intersect in unforeseen ways with the fact that elites have consistently accelerated migration during the liberal cycle but especially in the last 20 years or so. This has slowly but surely moved it up the list of concerns for the settled majority in most countries and made it the cause celebre for those who want to change the liberal paradigm. Bluntly, more and more of the native population feels threatened by the speed of change to their countries and their positions within them and are ever more angry because they didn’t ask for this..

So while I am confident that the current cycle will end here and across the West I am less and less confident that this can be done in a relatively smooth and painless way. There are simply too many people who have a vested interest in the current open / liberal system and this splits more and more at least partially along ethnic lines. There is now an emergent white majority wanting much lower migration and a closed system based around the native culture vs many minorities who want an open system based around multiculturalism or more accurately completely separate communities.

This is the challenge which is going mainstream now whether politicians like it or not as they simply can’t placate both sides of this political dispute. There is no way that both systems can co-exist in the same country as they are contradictions which are completely irreconcilable. You either have low or no migration and a mono-culture or you do not. There is simply no hedging around this issue and it is one that all parties will have to wrestle with. My concern now is that you will see a minorities (Or at least certain groups) plus elites versus the rest conflict emerge.

In fact I would argue that you are already seeing this with Labour’s actions when it comes to the Muslim population. They have clearly decided that they will do whatever is required to bring what they consider to be their tame voting bloc back under their wing from refusing to have a public inquiry into the Pakistani rape gangs through to the refusal to ban first cousin marriage, all the way through to injecting identity based anti white structures into the planning and criminal justice system and efforts to reintroduce blasphemy laws by the backdoor.

This will not end well.

The social changeover we are seeing now will not be stopped but it can perhaps be altered or deflected both for good or for bad. A good outcome would be to accept the change and try and keep the best of the existing system to fold into the new - for example gay rights. However a bad outcome would be to inflame the majority against the minority and push us towards something far far worse. Looking at the response of many to date this is the route that we appear to be on. It is one that attempts to lock out change for the majority using a minority which is continually increasing in size via mass uncontrolled and unwanted elite driven migration.

It is this that poses the greatest risk to the country both at a social and moral level. I worry deeply that we are heading towards a breaking point when people's limited trust in the political system completely breaks down due to politicians' flagrant disregard for their wishes and demands going back two decades or more. At that point you could begin to see events start to spin out of control very quickly. In fact I think you are already seeing the precursors to this if you look closely at the country.

Trends which are decades in the making were never going to be clean but the utter state our politicians are making of the growing clamour for radical change now is both telling because they don’t want to move but also depressing because it doesn’t take much imagination to work where this could end if things keep going in this direction. If you have not seen the recent interviews with Professor David Betz who is a professor of War studies at King's College London then I suggest you do. He calmly and concisely explains where he thinks we could be going and it is not pretty. It is one that many of us were already thinking about but that he brings to life using the full flower of academic language and his broad experience.

We are in a tight spot and we desperately need statesmen to step up to help guide the country safely through this transition and this needs to happen soon as currently the efforts to maintain the status quo are both ever more dangerous and politically poisonous. Throw in the increasing efforts to police freedom of speech using non hate crimes and the very clear two tier justice system and we have a political tinderbox waiting to go off and one that could start to pit the 85% against the rest along racial grounds. I would hate to see that happen as like it or not we are a multi racial country now. We desperately need the political class for once in their lives to get ahead of the situation though I see precious little signs of it currently.

I remain hopeful but worried which is reflected in my increasingly bipolar Twitter account. I don’t think that anything can stop the change in society that I believe is right and necessary. Societies simply don’t dance to the beat of any given politician. For example I think Thatcherism was a product of the last cycle ending - it was inevitable though perhaps the shape and timing would have been different if it had arrived via a different person. The same is likely here - the outcome I think should be the same even when I think about the impact of mass migration but the road to get there may well be wildly and sadly far far more unpleasant. We can but hope that change starts soon as it is late in the day and during the night the monsters come out.