Well the British public have apparently had enough and decided to throw a well placed and frankly well deserved grenade into the body politic at the locals. I am not sure about you but I laughed long and hard when I woke and the results started filtering in. My politics in terms of outcomes now are very much focused on inflicting the maximum pain and suffering on the establishment.
Now the initial shock has worn off the clever people have gone into overdrive to explain the results away as a mixture of Labour not going far and fast enough with their plan for the worse and the winter fuel allowance cut. The entire narrative though has failed to stick as it is blatantly nonsense being pushed by an ever more detached and deranged liberal elite who finally see the incoming tidal wave of public rage that has been building for two decades and is now cresting on the horizon.
I mean don’t get me wrong I am sure that many people are upset about the winter fuel allowance and proposed cuts to benefits (Though many more would probably be OK with them) but only because they are waking up to the reality of the fact that there is always more money when it comes to foreign wars, overseas crap, climate change and of course the great unwashed who pour ashore legally and illegally on a daily basis now.
Yes this election and the gathering rage are about more than migration but it is migration that is the focal point as the most visible sign of the laziness, intellectual rot and governing neglect that has been the calling card of our elites for years. They can sit and think up every excuse they like but they can’t escape from that reality as it crashes in on them from all sides.
It has not stopped the usual talking heads and assorted political hangers on from trying it anyway. Hague on the right (sort of) and McTernan on the left (sort of again) have certainly given it a good go. The advice to the establishment to stop the oncoming tsunami being more of the same. Just a quick tweak and a nod to the fact that migration has been a smidge high and all will be well. Good luck with that - I really really hope that their chosen sides listen. I am beyond the stage of wanting a soft landing.
I want the Hot Shots Part Deux of outcomes to make sure that there is no going back - political careers being ended to wild cheers from an enraged public in one big glorious humbling and cathartic democratic event. I want it and at this rate I think I am going to get it one way or another. You reap what you sow and this storm has been incoming for at least 10 years. They had their chance to listen and change but couldn’t rustle up the energy as they liked the existing system - well good luck as they will get to watch it burn down.
There are some saner heads on all sides who see the way the wind is blowing and very belatedly are trying to move the debate on. Labour is looking at options to extend the Indefinite Right to Remain period in response to the Boris wave and the Tories introduced an immigration bill which went further than I thought was possible. Some at least get that what comes next will be deeply unpleasant however it won’t be enough because parliament but especially Labour is stuffed full of immigrationists who see no real reason to swerve.
There will be no radical Danish moment (Link) where they stand up and say “We get it” and take hard, swift and far reaching action. No, the Labour government's reaction function is largely broken outside of those few sane voices screaming in the dark. Most in the party think immigration is great and that anyone who thinks otherwise is a dirty Nazi racist scumbag and so announcements are designed to hide the reality of their quest to keep numbers high at whatever cost.
The upcoming EU reset is a case in point with the youth mobility scheme which you can bet has already been agreed in all but name being postponed for now but the government is clear they will happily agree to it in due course. A perfect example where the liberal elite will always find an excuse for extra immigration because “the British public don’t mind that type”. Tone deaf but par of the course for people who could turn deafness into an Olympic sport.
However the public is not stupid and can see that the government is not going to change direction. Thus I stand by my prediction that Labour is going to 15% in the polls and there they will stay which will bring their brewing civil war to the surface. The PLP will then spend the next few years fighting over who will inherit what will be left of the rotten brand and desiccated corpse of the party post the next election.
As you can see I am deeply upset about this.
There is only so many times the public will take being spat in the face and well we are at that moment. All the energy and ideas are now on the right / nationalists. The future is theirs if they can pull together a coherent enough plan backed up by serious policy making which accepts that globalisation is over and that Thatcherism is not the answer. That was then and this is now and Blighty needs a massive dose of nation building to level up all regions and unify us not free market fundamentalism.
The Tories are on fire from stem to stern and yet I don’t think they are out though I agree with Tim Stanley in the Telegraph who thinks they should have their civil war now (Link). Personally I would stab Badenoch and bring in Bobby J (Robert Jenrick) who is becoming the most impressive politician in Westminster in terms of presentation, grasp of the emerging issues and sheer campaigning skill. He can have his Boris moment where he publicly throws out the liberals.
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This matters as we should not underestimate Farage’s ability to fall out with everyone. At some point the crown may well come free and then the right will need someone who has experience, gravitas and is backed up by a party which is accustomed to wielding the power of the state. However this only works once the public is convinced that they have changed and that will only happen after some good old traditional Conservative fratricide.
Sharpen thy knives true blue soldiers!
Either way we are in the end zone of the current political system which has for decades revolved around a consensus on everything from net zero to migration to the economy and much more. There is now real political space opening up between a right turning back towards the nation state and more traditional political views and values and a left dominated by a progressive liberal alliance which is pushing it further over and away from the emergent public consensus.
Nothing is going to survive this reality in terms of current policy making which is why I'm quite relaxed about net zero, the EU reset and much more. It's the last gasp of a status quo being pushed by people who have long since blasted off from planet Earth and in many cases exited our reality. I actually find it funny to watch these people trumpeting things which have the political shelf life of a gone off Tesco chicken sandwich on a Sunday night. Seriously read the room guys, look at the polls then just project forward - good luck!
The locals were one sign post along the way with elections in Wales and then Scotland coming up soon. Each one offering the public the opportunity to batter the establishment in response to their continuing failures. Still until then we can expect to see political fireworks across these fair isles as the old coalitions finally break down under the pressure of the political realignment which started maturing during Brexit. It's going to be politically violent, noisy and painful for many but especially Labour as reality dawns that they have passed the political event horizon and the public has stopped listening and are now only blaming.
System failure incoming.
Another fine piece if writing Daniel. I wish our politicians would ‘get it’ in the way you do.
Excellent piece, Dan.
Re. The "Disconnection" of the political class.
This week in Dáil Éireann we had a TD bemoan to the Press what a strain it was to keep her nails painted in Palestinian flag colours.
https://x.com/SuzieD755164/status/1920874953638920548?t=RC-PKYQxD1g3VemqbxNA8w&s=19