Nothing ever changes

No wonder the public is angry, resentful and more and more volatile

The country is depressed.

I know that sounds weird but that is the reality of the situation. There is a persistent and worsening sense of hopelessness and doom within the country.

Why would it not be like that?

I mean we are currently in a silent depression which has been ongoing for nearly 20 years since at least the Great financial crisis. It is also one that none of the politicians who have been in charge have really made any effort to get us out of.

Their response to it at each stage has been more of the same instead of a radical break from the past to try and shake the economy awake. Even the Brexit referendum was little more than a blip on the road to nowhere on which we are currently travelling. The political class could have used that moment to break us free and at least try something new but no they choice to cleave as close to the EU as possible and in Labours case try and get us even closer.

Instead, we get the same ideas surfaced like bobbing turds that just won’t flush. All announced to great fanfare with politicians repeating the same told tired tropes whilst expecting us to cheer them as the next Disraeli or Gladstone.

I mean let’s look at the top ideas that Labour has to reboot the economy – the Green revolution, EU integration, Chinese opening, mass migration and of course the ever perennial growing the City.

If they sound familiar, they should as they are the same ones that George Osborne had some 16 years ago and if you weren’t around to experience them during his tenure well, they didn’t work then and they won’t work now. However, this matters not as they are just put forward and we are all supposed to lap them up.

Let’s break them down swiftly on the off chance some MP decides to read my sorry Stack:

The Green revolution

You can trace the collapse in British economic productivity back to the start of the net zero adventure. This is hardly surprising as the entire point of industrialisation is you replace people with machines which these days are run on electricity – so higher energy prices reduce the likelihood of this happening. Furthermore, higher energy prices destroy our competitiveness against those with much lower energy prices. Now we have pretty much the most expensive energy in the world and so the result has been ongoing de-industrialisation which is now accelerating. Net zero is indeed creating jobs however it is destroying them even faster and those it is creating are normally much worse paying. Furthermore, most of the ‘revolutionary’ side of thing is not even happening here because of the cost of energy. We are instead buying the equipment from China which mostly runs on coal and importing it – bang up job.

EU integration

We were in the EU for the first 8 years of this silent depression and if you did not notice growth was no higher. Furthermore, since leaving the bloc the British economy has largely performed as well if not better than its European peers. The Europhilic brigade won’t like reading this, but these are both facts. The much-touted economic forecasts which were produced by different think tanks during Brexit have always told you more about their own biases than the likely future performance of UK PLC. One good honest glance at most of Western Europe should put to bed any ideas that EU integration is the tonic for our ills. Most of the countries are experiencing the same depression and accompanying political volatility as us. Most of the Pro EU crowd know this which is why they and their mates in the liberal media make every effort to avoid looking at and discussing the deepening crisis on the continent.

Chinese opening

China is in crisis – it is going Japanese. Basically, they have a freak of an economy which produces wonders but only at the cost of ever-increasing debt and a mutant trade surplus. It is stuck in deflation which appears to be worsening which is mechanically making the aforementioned debt crisis even worse as it ratchets up the size of that debt but also the number of bad debts in the banks – of which there are many many many. Population wise the country is in a major crisis as the working age population is now contracting rapidly as the one child policy bites some 50 years later. Furthermore, the US and China are decoupling and very rapidly now and that is basically the end of globalisation. People can live in denial up until a point but surely someone in Westminster has realised that China is not riding to anyone’s rescue especially unless we are willing to choose their bloc vs the US one.

Mass migration

If in doubt stick more people in the country and if the public squeals well just ignore them. This has been and still is the policy of the entire uniparty for decades and it has brought us here. Race relations are in freefall, multiculturalism is dying as the majority finally grasp what it really means, social solidarity is collapsing and the welfare state is likely going on the chopping block shortly – that is before you get to the rapes, attacks, segregation and mounting outcry over DEI which has infected the British state and turned it against the native population. Economically it has been no less disastrous with inward migration pushing down wages for the settled population whilst study after study across Western Europe showing that most migrants are net costs to the state over their lifetime when benefits, health-care and pensions are considered. The British state of course has never allowed such a study here because it would collapse the entire delusion however you know time is up when even the OBR that well know revolutionary organisation is calling out the cost implications.

The City of London

Look the deal before 2008 was simple – the politicians left the City alone and used the tax to rain money down on the rest of the country. Sounds good but even before the crash it was obvious this model didn’t really work and afterwards it has completely collapsed. The City is simply not growing fast enough to produce the excess taxes needed to fix the gaping social and economic holes in this country. Furthermore, I think it is likely to contract as globalisation goes into reverse. There will be no need for such large cross border FX flows if trade falls, no need for much of the insurance it offers etc etc and this if we do not see capital controls which I think are a growing likelihood then even the wealth side of things will take a hit. It will still matter but the idea that we should be betting the house on it is for the birds.

So where does it leave us?

Well, where we were during Brexit in search for a new political economy as the current one is quite clearly knackered and that my friends is why so many people are angry and getting angrier. The political class are not actually moving the country forward in any meaningful way. They never fail to waste every opportunity to do something new which may actually move the needle.

This is why our political system is melting slowly down like a nuclear reactor which is overloading. It is why you have seen the sudden emergence of new parties and movements across the political spectrum. The two camps can roughly be grouped around the Greens on one side which represent a dysfunctional and contradictory mix of socialism with Europhilia and social libertarianism and on the other Reform which represents a mixture of traditional Conservative small state, an acceptance of the end of globalisation and a demand for the firm slap of the state which they claim to dislike. Neither really have a joined-up worldview though they are both trying to grope their way to one whilst maintaining electoral coalitions.

However, joined up thinking and a coherent worldview are not what are attracting people to them. Bluntly put they represent a break from the past and are offering up change and if that does not work then at least, they may break the system open enough so others can have a go. As I said in the last piece this is wholly a good thing and one can hope that though the country will no doubt face plant a few times it at least offers a way forward out of the current malaise.

It is this anger and urgency which devastated the Conservative party at the last election as their coalition shattered and walked off in different directions or in some cases just didn’t vote and it is what is killing Labour now. One can have at least a smidge of sympathy for the Tories after 14 years and dealing with so many crises. Labour however deserves everything it is getting after wasting their time in opposition screaming evil Tories and trying to shaft the country over Brexit.

Sadly, whatever happens I see no hope coming to the country soon as Labour simply can’t deliver up anything meaningful and so I think the depressive state of things will continue. At best we will see a sense of resigned public anger – at worse I think you are looking down the barrel of serious public disturbances. Time will tell but I will be honest and say it does not look good.

Randomly a good thing to happen would be a financial crisis which may well come soon as Labour has no growth plan, no ability to restrain spending and is heading in the wrong direction when you look at every important economic metric. That sounds weird but an earlier one would be less painful for the most vulnerable in society as it would force a change in direction now before the size of the correction is completely out of control.

Either way we now wait – either for the end of the parliament, the end of Labour or some other crisis which will propel the political system forward. A thoroughly depressing short-term outlook I am being honest – however this is the reality in this country and many others. The interregnum is finally ending but not today, not tomorrow and not next week but soon.